Wednesday, May 27, 2009

The Peakers' Hall of Shame

Hello! Welcome to the Peakers' Hall of Shame. It's here where we hold the doom-minded peakers of the peak oil community responsible with their misplaced-beliefs, quotes and actions. It's here where their own blown beliefs and predictions will placed in front of wide-open eyes so everyone can see; it's here where their own medicine will be force-fed down their throats. Let's hold them accountable!

This will be the blog's only post and this will be updated periodically. Check in from time-to-time, y'all!

SAY... wanna get recognized? If you know something good, throw it my way and I'll post it up to your credit.

- Brewskie

Jeffrey Brown:

Added 7/15/09: "As I said last year, I expect that by the end of 2006 we will be in the teeth of a ferocious net oil export crisis."

The Oil Drum:

Added 7/15/09: "But until some solid, repeatable well data emerges, the Haynesville will remain more diamond in the rough than diamond ring... So there you have a brief explanation of how the new technology is slowing, though it won’t stop, the declining gas reserve in the United States (link)." - April 10, 2008


"In this report, NCI estimates the amounts shale gas and tight gas production can be increased in the next decade. These estimates suggest that US natural gas production can be ramped up by nearly 50% by 2020... EIA has recently reported a big increase in US natural gas production (8.8%, comparing the first five months of 2008 with the first five months of 2007). Some have suggested that the EIA numbers must be wrong. It seems to me that what we may be seeing is the effect of a recent technological breakthrough. (link)" - September 4, 2008


Added 7/15/09: "My understanding is the 'water cut' in Ghawar is 30%, meaning 30% of the fluid coming up is water. This is a bad sign, it means the field is watering out and could be over pulled already." - June 5, 2004 (as noted in Ghawar Guzzler, oil fields typically don't deplete until water cuts cross 50%)

Mathew "the King of Peak" Simmons:

Added on 7/10/09: "It's not going to collapse, it's not going to collapse. The idea that it's just bubble, it's just speculators... it's poppy-talk." - July 11, 2008 - right at last year's oil price peak of $147 (hat tip: Barba Rija)

Added on 7/10/09: "There's no extra crude in OPEC's pocket. We have no cushion." - June 25, 2009 (debunked here)

"We don't have any evidences of glut, along with, "No way did demand plunge." - Dec 19th, 2008

"There really is no roof on oil prices at this point... " - Sept. 22, 2008

Predicted in a 2003 conversation with Mike Ruppert that the US would face a natural gas crisis within two years, and American gas production was destined "fall off a cliff."

Predicted $120-$190 barrel of oil for 2005.

"We are three, six, maybe nine months away from a price shock. We are not talking about three to five years away -- it will be much sooner." - Late March, 2009

Ken Deffeyes:

Added 7/15/09: "By 2025, we're going to be back in the stone age." - February 11, 2006

Nine failed peak oil predictions.

T. Boone Pickens:

Never again will we pump more than 82 million barrels.” - Aug. 9, 2004

Global oil [production] is 84 million barrels [per day]. I don't believe you can get it any more than 84 million barrels." - May 2005

"Supply is—you‘ve just about had it on supply; 85 million barrels a day world supply is about it. " - Aug. 26, 2005

Mike Ruppurt:

Added 7/15/09: "While I had serious doubts about America's ability to recover from Katrina, I am certain that - barring divine intervention - the United States is finished; not only as a superpower, but possibly even as a single, unified nation with the arrival of Hurricane Rita." - September 21, 2005

Added 7/15/09: "Reports have suggested that China may dump half of its $1.4 trillion dollar holdings within the next two months." - January 9, 2009

Predicted in September of 2009 that gold would reach $2,000 within six months."

James "'K'lusterfuck" Kunstler:

"Y2K is real. Y2K is going to rock our world... I doubt that the WalMarts and K-Marts of the land will survive Y2K." - 1999

"I'm inclined to predict a gruesome journey down for the Dow Jones into the 4000 range by the end of the year. " - June 27, 2005

"The commercial airline industry is already whirling around the drain. 2006 will send it decisively down that drain. Since we cannot do without aviation in a nation as large as the US (with train service on the level with Bolivia) then the government may have to take over the crippled air routes." - Jan. 2, 2006

"Let's get this out of the way up front: the worst call I made last year was for the Dow to crumble down to 4000 when, in fact, it melted up to a new all-time record high of about 12,500." - Jan 1, 2007

"For those of you concerned about my sense of pride -- yes, I sure got that eggy feeling all over my face last week after calling for a thousand-point Dow plunge, only to watch it put on the greatest two-day melt-up in five years." - Dec. 3, 2007

"My guess is that oil and its byproducts will become much more difficult to get in the months ahead -- not just more expensive, but literally not available." - Oct. 27th, 2008

"My guess is it will first take the form, sometime after Memorial Day (but maybe sooner) of wholesale liquidations of everything under the North American sun: companies, households, chattels, US Treasury paper of all kinds, and, of course, the S & P 500." - April 6, 2009